Maps included are the following for the entire Bay Delta and Suisun, North Bay, Central Bay, and South Bay: 2010 elevations from LiDAR 2030: Sed Low/SLR low, Sed Low/SLR high, Sed high/ SLR low, Sed high/ SLR high 2050: Sed Low/SLR low, Sed Low/SLR high, Sed high/ SLR low, Sed high/ SLR high 2110: Sed Low/SLR low, Sed Low/SLR high, Sed high/ SLR low, Sed high/ SLR high Also included are histograms showing area covered by marsh habitat types for the four sea-level rise/sediment scenarios, for the Bay Delta and subregions.
LCCs have produced a wealth of informational documents, reports, fact sheets, webinars and more to help support resource managers in designing and delivering conservation at landscape scales.
Vulnerabilities of 27 resources were evaluated during the Vulnerability Assessment Workshop (held March 5-7, 2013); resources included 8 ecosystems (alpine/subalpine, yellow pine/mixed conifer, red fir, wet meadows and fens, oak woodlands, chaparral, sagebrush, and aquatic), 15 species (fisher, marten, bighorn sheep, wood rat, willow flycatcher, mountain quail, sage grouse, Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog, mountain yellow-legged frog, red fir, blue oak, black oak, whitebark pine, bristlecone pine, and aspen), and 4 ecosystem services (timber and wood products, carbon, fire, and recreation)
Ducks Unlimited, Inc Introduction In addition to working with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center team led by Joe Fleskes on defining the feasibility and strategies for tracking a variety of key avian habitats in the Central Valley. Ducks Unlimited focused on mapping Central Valley rice habitats that provide large bioenergetic inputs to overwintering waterfowl and shorebirds in the region. The first year of the project characterized rice fields and their winter- flooded state in the Sacramento Valley.
In this CA LCC-funded Climate-Smart Conservation Planning effort, EcoAdapt's climate adaptation scientists worked with National Forest conservation managers to conduct vulnerability assessments, develop climate-smart adaptation strategies and actions, and generate implementation plans for key habitats of Southern California, with a specific focus on four National Forests (Angeles, San Bernardino, Cleveland, Los Padres).
This website offers results from the project "Impacts of climate change on ecology and habitats of waterbirds", which evaluates projected impacts of climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios on ecology and habitats of waterfowl and other waterbirds in the Central Valley of California.
Thanks to the generous support of the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative,
Point Blue Conservation Science, The Nature Conservancy, and the Elkhorn Slough Coastal
Training Program were able to develop a suite of climate-smart restoration practices in the
Central Coast Ecoregion, pilot those practices on the Upper Pajaro River, and share
knowledge gained and developed with the local community as well as with the broader
restoration community in California.
Selected climate and biogeographic model datasets are hosted by the Climate Commons and made available for viewing and download in a custom interactive map utility designed for the purpose of making very large and multi-layer datasets easily comprehensible and accessible to everyone who needs them. Logged-in users see a link to the visualization and download pages in the catalog record for the hosted dataset, and can select from the combinations of global climate model, emissions scenario, and data parameters, as well as set a geographic area of interest.
The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S.
The CA LCC and CA Department of Water Resources partnered to host a TEK training for natural resource managers and scientists. The aim was to foster ability to partner with tribes and understand traditional knowledge of the environment.
The development of sophisticated species distribution modeling techniques provides an opportunity to examine the potential effects of climate change on bird communities. Using these modeling approaches, we are relating bird data to environmental layers to generate robust predictions of current (1971–2000) and projected future species occurrence. Future bird distributions are based on regional climate model projections for the periods 2038–2070 (IPCC Scenario A2). Bird species distributions were created using the Maxent modeling technique: Maxent (Phillips et al.
The California Invasive Plant Council (Cal-IPC) worked with dozens of partner organizations to map invasive plants statewide and to build an online decision-support tool, CalWeedMapper, to use the data. Cal-IPC has used the tool to design landscape-level projects with regional partners, and has been successful in securing funds for on-the-ground implementation of high-priority projects. CalWeedMapper provides spatial information that serves as the foundation for selecting priorities and demonstrating clear rationale to funders.
On March 3, 2015, The California Landscape Conservation Cooperative conducted a
scenario planning workshop as a part of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation
Project (CVLCP). The goal of this scenario planning exercise was to develop a common
understanding of a range of future conditions in the Central Valley as a basis for
identifying priority natural resources and adaptation strategies and actions.
This report presents the approach, methods, conclusions, and recommendations of the
San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Project, a five-year science-based study to
identify the most essential lands needed to sustain the biodiversity of the San Francisco
Sierra meadows are natural marvels. For millennia they have been cultural havens, hotspots of
biodiversity and, recently, valued components of California’s natural water infrastructure. Sierra
meadows absorb snowmelt in early spring and gradually release the stored water throughout the
dry summer months. Healthy meadows keep cool water flowing; they also keep streams clear and
clean by filtering out sediment and absorbing floodwaters. In 1889 John Muir’s laments for
overgrazing in Tuolumne Meadows and in the headwaters of the Merced River prompted his
Densities for five key tidal marsh-dependent bird species were modeled using boosted regression trees (Elith et al. 2008). The models are able to fit non-linear functions between environmental variables and the presence/absence or density of a species. Map values represent the probability of occurrence of a species or the density (birds/ha). Higher values in a map indicate a higher likelihood that a species will be present at a site. Bird species modeled: Common yellowthroat, black rail, clapper rail, marsh wren, song sparrow.
The Climate Science Alliance - South Coast is a partnership formed to develop and support a network of conservation leaders, scientists, and natural resource managers focused on sharing ecosystem-based resiliency approaches to safeguard our communities and natural resources from climate change risks.
Conservation efforts in Mediterranean-climate regions are complicated by species' variability in response to multiple threats. Functional type classifications incorporating life history traits with disturbance response strategies provide a framework for predicting groups of species' response to fire, but it is unclear whether these classifications will be useful when species are exposed to multiple threats or differ in spatial context.
We convened a workshop to finalize the draft list of focal habitats using a set of evaluation criteria based on multi-criteria decision analysis methods. Based on lessons learned from the Sierra Nevada project, this workshop is an important component of the climate-smart conservation approach in that a broad range of stakeholder and scientific expertise creates buy-Ââ€in into the process and provides credibility to the project, and early in-person engagements foster commitment from experts and stakeholders to participate throughout the projectâ€™s duration.
The Watershed Analyst lets you access climate and hydrology data to help your community get climate ready. The Watershed Analyst accesses the best science available to provide our region’s first high resolution resource for looking at the effects of climate on water resources and open spaces. This project taps into the knowledgebase of TBC3, the Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Consortium, a Bay Area interdisciplinary research collaborative funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Data provided can be a helpful tool for teachers, students, planners, and researchers.
The Deltares Delft3D FM (flexible mesh) model of the Bay-Delta that provides boundary conditions for the South San Francisco Bay geomorphic model, which is now a 1D model that is spatially extrapolated to 2D, was released at the Bay-Delta Conference in October 2014. The San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model is an open source Delft3D FM model and allows for continuous development of a process-based, hydrodynamic surface water flow model of the San Francisco Bay-Delta system.
In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture.
The myriad challenges facing biodiversity under climate change are reflected in the challenges facing managers planning for these impacts. An ever-expanding number of recommendations and tools for climate change adaptation exist to aid managers in these efforts, yet navigating these various resources can lead to information overload and paralysis in decision-making. Here we provide a synthesis of the key considerations, approaches, and available tools for integrating climate change adaptation into management plans.
California's terrestrial ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to future changes in the global climate, including increased temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and changes in human infrastructure and development. Information on the potential effects of climate change on bird communities can help guide effective conservation and inform land management decisions.
This webpage, document, and bibliography provides a summary of projected future changes in the California Central Valley according to current models and assessments. Information is provided for Temperature, Extreme Heat, Precipitation, Drought and Aridity, Sierra Nevada Snowpack, Snowmelt, Runoff, Stream Flow and Temperatures, Storms and Flooding, Groundwater, Agriculture and Urban Land and Water Use, Phenology, Fire, Vegetation change.
As a clear consensus is emerging that suitable habitat for many species will dramatically reduce and/or shift with climate change, attention is turning to adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Assisted colonization is one such strategy that has been predominantly discussed in terms of the costs of introducing potential competitors into new communities and the benefits of reducing extinction risk.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed future scenarios of land use-land cover (LULC) change in the United States as part of a national carbon sequestration assessment required by the U.S. Congress (Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007). Future potential demand, or the area of land required for each LULC class, was based on a set of scenarios from three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al.
In the Pacific Northwest, coastal wetlands support a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries and flood protection. The tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays of coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater, and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years.
As part of the CA LCC funded project "A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends", monitoring plans were developed for the Coastal CA and Baja region, the Central Valley, and San Francisco Bay area. The plans propose a statistically robust, logistically feasible, long-term monitoring program for wintering shorebirds to track spatial and temporal population trends resulting from changing climate and habitat conditions.
Dr. Frank Casey of the US Geological Survey discussed the challenges faced when attempting to value changes in ecosystem services in response to climate/land use change impacts on California rangelands.
The presentation provides a brief overview of how an economics conceptual framework and tools can be used to value three ecosystem services that California rangelands provide:
These Central Valley habitats, species groups, and species reflect a collective set of priorities and will be the focus of vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies and actions
Assessing vulnerabilities is a critical step in climate–smart
conservation planning. The Central Valley Landscape
Conservation Project (CVLCP) participants evaluated the
vulnerability of a group of selected priority natural resources
by discussing and answering a series of questions for
sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity at a workshop
held in October of 2015. The vulnerability scores presented
in this summary were calculated based on the expertise
of the CVLCP participants and are accompanied by a
Metrics used to evaluate scenario impacts and success of proposed conservation actions were provided in datasets for specific Central Valley basins. Metrics included the amount of projected available habitat area (and loss of area) across years, and resulting impacts of habitat reduction on goal waterbird populations. Metrics evaluating success of proposed habitat conservation actions primarily focused on adequacy of food supplies to support wintering waterfowl at CVJV-goal population levels. Metrics were provided for each scenario evaluated in WEAP-CVwh.
Climate change, when combined with more conventional stress from human exploitation, calls into question the capacity of both existing ecological communities and resource management institutions to experience disturbances while substantially retaining their same functions and identities. In other words, the physical and biological effects of climate change raise fundamental challenges to the resilience of natural ecosystems.
The overarching workshop goal is to identify an optimal allocation of limited funds across time and space regarding potential actions within subregions that can be coordinated among partners to achieve fundamental objectives for conservation in SFB.
This effort builds off results from preceding efforts; October 2011 SFB SDM workshop (Takekawa et al. 2012); 2013-2014 Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Update and other planning documents; and spring 2014 SFB SDM webinar series. The Spring 2014 SFB SDM Workshop tackles five main challenges:
This website provides information on the project's effort to establish a network of environmental monitoring stations within the boundaries of the California LCC. Users of this web portal can view predicted distributional changes in landbird, habitat, and climate under future climate conditions and find out general information on the progress and evolution of the network.
Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of global change. Key to this strategy is identification of these areas as well as an understanding of how they are connected on the landscape. Focusing on meadows of the Sierra Nevada in California, we examined multiple factors affecting connectivity using circuit theory, and determined how patches have been and are expected to be affected by climate change.
The Greater Farallones NMS Climate Adaptation Plan is the result of a 2-year process to characterize climate impacts and vulnerabilities to Sanctuary resources along the North-central California coast and ocean, and to develop management strategies to respond to and decrease those vulnerabilities, ultimately enhancing resource resilience to climate impacts.
This vulnerability assessment is a science-based effort to identify how and why focal resources (habitats, species, and ecosystem services) across the North-central California coast and ocean region are likely to be affected by future climate conditions. The goal of this assessment is to provide expert-driven, scientifically sound assessments to enable marine resource managers to respond to, plan, and manage for the impacts of climate change to habitats, species, and ecosystem services within the region.
The CA LCC-funded project "A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada Birds " applied the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and developed a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. “Sierra Nevada Bird Vulnerability Rankings Table” summarizes the vulnerability rankings using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index for 168 Sierra Nevada bird species.
The Climate Science Alliance hosts trainings and partners with other local organizations to hold trainings for the community throughout the year. Training topics range in subject matter and audience, reaching out to scientists, educators, planners and more.
Dam removal is often proposed for restoration of anadromous salmonid populations, which are in serious decline in California. However, the benefits of dam removal vary due to differences in affected populations and potential for environmental impacts. Here, we develop an assessment method to examine the relationship between dam removal and salmonid conservation, focusing on dams that act as complete migration barriers.
Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC), is very important for coastal California during the seasonally arid Meiterranean climate summer month s (June – September). The low stratus and stratocumulus clouds form ov er the ocean, adv ec t onsh ore as fog and low clouds altering the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystem s. Precisely located fog belt zones an be used to quantify the impacts of FLCC on ecosystem dynamics. The water and shade cover that FLCC provides during hot and dry summer periods is especially critical for endan ered species such as coho salmon.
California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Project on estuarine shoals and vertebrate predators: In this report, we describe the integrated research program supported by the California LCC addressing sea level rise effects on estuarine shoals and the vertebrate predators dependent on these habitats.
Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies.
The North-central California coast and ocean is a globally significant and extraordinarily productive marine and coastal ecosystem that boasts an array of local, state and federal protected areas and other managed lands. Despite this richness and attention to conservation, this region is still vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
This webinar will focus on the Geos Institute project Managing Coast Redwoods for Resilience in a Changing Climate, which was jointly funded by the North Pacific and California LCCs. Speaker Marni Koopman, Climate Change Scientist from Geos Institute, will discuss collaboratively developed climate adaptation management actions for California Coast Redwoods.
This workshop aimed to broaden knowledge about supporting riparian restoration projects that use the principles of climate-smart restoration.
When: May 29, 2014 1:00 - 3:30 PM
Where: Department of Water Resources, Large Conference Room, 2nd Floor, Bonderson Building, 901 P Street, Sacramento, CA 95814
The project evaluates the effects of different climate change and land use change scenarios on ecosystem services (water availability, wildlife habitat and carbon sequestration) provided by rangelands in California. The project is a partnership between the USGS and Defenders of Wildlife and it is funded by the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative.
The USGS Coastal Ecosystem Response to Climate Change (CERCC) began in 2008 to deliver sea - level rise ecological response mod- els at a scale relevant for resource managers. Work was originally focused on the San Fran- cisco Bay estuary and then expanded to en- compass other Pacific coast sites. Our goal is to provide site specific measurements and results that land managers, planners, and those concerned with the conservation of near- shore habitats can use to make well - informed climate change adaptation strategies and deci- sions.
This project analyzed downscaled climate model data to assess the geography of climate change at scales relevant to actual conservation actions. This work analyzes the California Essential Habitat Connectivity products to determine which protected lands are most vulnerable and which of the proposed corridors would partially mitigate climate change threats.