Resources

Existing stream temperature data will be compiled from numerous federal, state, tribal, and private sources to develop an integrated regional database. Spatial statistical models for river networks will be applied to these data to develop an accurate model that predicts stream temperature for all fish-bearing streams in the US portion of the NPLCC. Differences between model outputs for historic and future climate scenarios will be used to assess spatial variation in the vulnerability of sensitive fish species across the NPLCC.

The primary objective of the research is to develop a rule-based decision support system to predict the relative vulnerability of nearshore species to climate change. The approach is designed to be applicable to fishes and invertebrates with limited data by predicting risk from readily avialable data, including species' biogeographic distributions and natural history attributes.

Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society, such as water storage and filtration, wildlife habitat, agriculture, recreation, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. They are also considered to be among the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change, which will exacerbate the already threatened nature of wetlands due to changes in land-use.

This report provides a first-ever compilation of what is known—and not known—about climate change effects on freshwater aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the geographic extent of the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service funded this report to help inform members of the newly established NPLCC as they assess priorities and begin operations. Production of this report was guided by University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group and information was drawn from more than 250 documents and more than 100 interviews.

This final progress report describes the completion of the objectives of U.S. FWS Agreement Number F11AP00032 (Agreement) – Moving from Impacts to Action: Expert Focus Groups for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems of the North Pacific LCC – and Modification No. 001 to said Agreement – Identifying and Synthesizing Climate Change Effects, Adaptation Approaches, and Science Opportunities in the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative’s (NPLCC) Terrestrial Ecosystems. 

Polar bears along Alaska's Beaufort Sea frequently give birth to young in land-based snow dens.
These dens are established in November, typically in deep snowdrifts that have developed in the
lee of cut-banks found along streams, rivers, and the coast. Durner et al. (2001, 2006) indicated
that, for 24 known land den sites, the local slopes ranged from 15 to 50° and were 1.3 to 34 m
high. The dens faced all directions but east. They published a distribution map based on habitat

Average historical annual total precipitation, projected total precipitation (inches), and relative change in total precipitation (% change from baseline) for Northern Alaska. GIF formatted animation and PNG images. Maps created using the SNAP 5-GCM composite (AR5-RCP 6.0) and CRU TS3.1.01 datasets.

The Pacific Loon is the most common breeding loon in Arctic Alaska, nesting throughout much
of the state (Russell 2002). This species typically breeds on lakes that are ≥1 ha in size in both
boreal and tundra habitats. They are primarily piscivorous although they are known to commonly
feed chicks invertebrates (D. Rizzolo and J. Schmutz, unpublished data). Many Pacific Loons
spend their winters in offshore waters of the west coast of Canada and the U.S. (Russell 2002).

This map was created by Arctic LCC staff and depicts the general boundaries of the Arctic LCC overlayed onto a satellite image. This map is in JPG format, suitable for presentations.

Baseline (1961-1990) average total precipitation (inches) for Alaska and Western Canada. This zip file contains three GeoTIFF rasters. The file names identifies whether a file represents an annual mean or a seasonal mean (i.e., summer or winter). Summer is defined as June - August; winter is defined as December - February. Baseline data are derived from Climate Research Unit
(CRU) TS 3.1.01 data. CRU data courtesy of Scenarios Network for Alaska and
Arctic Planning.

Permafrost is a unique characteristic of polar regions and high mountains and is fundamental
to geomorphic processes and ecological development in permafrost-affected environments.
Because permafrost impedes drainage and ice-rich permafrost settles upon thawing, degradation
of permafrost in response to climate change will have large consequences for tundra and boreal
ecosystems (Osterkamp 2005, Jorgenson and Osterkamp 2005, Shur and Osterkamp 2007,
Jorgenson et al. 2010, 2013). Thawing permafrost affects surface hydrology by impounding

Results indicate that the regions most vulnerable
to ecological shifts under the influence of climate
change are likely to be the interior and northern
mountainous portions of Alaska; the northern
Yukon; and much of the Northwest Territories.
Although the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios predict
more cliome shift overall, as compared to the
more conservative B1 scenario, the patterns hold
true across all three. Notably, there are no areas of
the NWT predicted to retain their current cliomes.

ire-induced permafrost degradation is well documented in boreal forests, but the role of fires in initiating thermokarst development in Arctic tundra is less well understood. Here we show that Arctic tundra fires may induce widespread thaw subsidence of permafrost terrain in the first seven years following the disturbance. Quantitative analysis of airborne LiDAR data acquired two and seven years post-fire, detected permafrost thaw subsidence across 34% of the burned tundra area studied, compared to less than 1% in similar undisturbed, ice-rich tundra terrain units.

Stream physical parameter time series files for six or more beaded streams on the North Slope of Alaska in the Fish Creek Watershed near Nuiqsut. These include time series of water temperature (pool bed and surface and channel runs) and pool stage and correspond stream discharge developed from a rating curve.

Throughout the Arctic most pregnant polar bears (Ursus maritimus) construct maternity dens in seasonal snowdrifts that form in wind-shadowed areas. We developed and verified a spatial snowdrift polar bearden habitat model (SnowDens-3D) that predicts snowdrift locations and depths along Alaska’s Beaufort Sea coast. SnowDens-3D integrated snow physics, weather data, and a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) to produce predictions of the timing, distribution, and growth of snowdrifts suitable for polar bear dens.

Appendices excerpted from the "Predicting Future Potential Climate-Biomes for the Yukon, Northwest Territories and Alaska" report.

Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) have a life-history strategy specifically adapted to the extreme climate of the North. These fish migrate to spawning grounds just after breakup in the spring, then migrate to feeding sites in early summer, and finally in the fall migrate back to their overwintering sites. The Kuparuk River is a perennial stream originating in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range on the North Slope of Alaska. Sections of the Kuparuk are periodically intermittent in that, during low flows in the system, these channel reaches appear dry.

Average historical annual total precipitation (mm) and projected relative change in total precipitation (% change from baseline) for Northern Alaska. 30-year averages. Handout format. Maps created using the SNAP 5-GCM composite (AR5-RCP 8.5) and CRU TS3.1.01 datasets.

Researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) will
develop a model that examines the relationship between
measured steam flow and surface water connectivity between
summer feeding and overwintering habitats for fish on the
North Slope.

This dataset consists of a polygon vector file representing 767 plots surveyed as part of the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM). For each plot, information pertaining to shorebird abundance, occupancy, and species richness is provided. This dataset was derived from single-visit rapid area shorebird surveys in which 1-2 surveyors recorded all suspected breeding shorebirds within the plot boundary. These data were acquired over the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska during nine years between 1998 and 2008 (surveys not conducted in 2003 and 2005).

The Alaska ShoreZone program has been able to document Arctic coastal biology
and dynamic processes through high resolution aerial imagery, videography, and
ground assessments: a snapshot in time of the ever changing Arctic coast. Some of
the most spectacular of these images have been collected in this volume, Coastal
Impressions: A Photographic Journey along Alaska’s Arctic Coast. Glance through
these pages, study and ponder over them , then close your eyes and imagine.
Wipe away your preconceived notions of the Arctic and learn about the gem that

The Arctic, including Alaska, has warmed significantly over the last five decades, with
widespread changes in every region, particularly in Alaska’s Arctic slope, north of the Brooks
Range. Prominent changes include changes of ocean temperature, increase in permafrost
temperature in many regions, warmer winter seasons, with longer and warmer snow-free
seasons, warmer freshwater temperatures, movement of plant and wildlife species previously
found in more southern regions of Alaska into the Arctic slope region, changes in summer and

The Baird’s Sandpiper is an uncommon breeding bird in Arctic Alaska using both coastal and
montane regions. This species typically nests in upland, well-drained, exposed tundra, generally
avoiding wet tundra although will sometimes nest in wet prairie meadows near lakes (Marconi &
Salvadori 2008). Like other sandpipers, Baird’s Sandpipers feed almost entirely on insects during
the breeding season adjusting to seasonal shifts in primary prey items (Moskoff and

This data set represents an updated Ecological Subsection Map for Northern Alaska. This 2012 revision focused on completing the incompletely mapped portion of the southern NPRA, improving mapping of glacial and outwash deposits within the Brooks Foothills, and improving consistency with existing surficial and bedrock geology maps in northern Alaska. The revisions resulted in 525 ecological subsections, nested within 55 ecosections and 12 ecoregions covering 411,781 km2.