Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 has been rising due to the burning of fossil fuels. increased absorption of this CO2 by the oceans is lowering the seawater pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωar). This process is known as ocean acidification (OA). numerous studies have shown a direct correlation between declining ocean pH, declining Ωar, and declining coral growth, but the mechanism is not understood.

MCCC Final Report

Publication titled "​Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections"

Changes to patterns of wind and ocean currents are tightly linked to climate change and have important implications for cost of travel and energy budgets in marine vertebrates. We evaluated how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven wind patterns affected breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross across a decade of study.

Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots.

Map showing the locations of the 25 modeled points within the tropical Pacific Ocean used in this study.

Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum.

Final Report for Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning

Potential Impacts of SLR on Native Coastal Vegetation and Cultural Resources Final Report

Determination of carbon isotope (δ13C) values of tree-ring tissue is a well-established method to reconstruct past climate variability at annual resolution, but such records are limited in tropical latitudes due to the lack of well-defined annual growth bands. Recent work has demonstrated the potential for high-resolution, intra-ring δ13C records to help define ring boundaries in tropical environments and provide additional climate information at sub-annual resolution.

Local and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems are thought to be particularly valuable for fostering adaptation and resilience to environmental and climate change. This paper investigates the role of TEK in adaptation to social–ecological change at the community level. It is unique because it takes a longitudinal perspective and draws on historical and contemporary data. We focus on a case study from Hawai‘i where TEK, cultural identity, and their relationships to environmental stewardship are locally seen as the basis for social resilience.

Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station.

Strong evidence on climate change underscores the need for actions to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise. Global mean sea level may rise 0.18–0.48 m by mid-century1, 2 and 0.5–1.4 m by the end of the century2. Besides marine inundation, it is largely unrecognized that low-lying coastal areas may also be vulnerable to groundwater inundation, which is localized coastal-plain flooding due to a rise of the groundwater table with sea level.

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually.

Climate-change impacts on coral reefs are expected to include temperature-induced spatially extensive bleaching events1. Bleaching causes mortality when temperature stress persists but exposure to bleaching conditions is not expected to be spatially uniform at the regional or global scale2. Here we show the first maps of global projections of bleaching conditions based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 (ref. 3) models forced with the new Representative Concentration Pathways4 (RCPs).

Current forest bird number of species based on modeled range and available primary habitat of high model reliability species.

Manuscript outputs: Figures 2a, 2b, 3b, 4, 5

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET): These data represent decadal mean totals of potential evapotranspiration estimates (mm). The file name specifies the decade the raster represents. For example, a file named pet_mean_mm_decadal_CCCMA_CGCM31_A1B_annual_2000-2009.tif represents the decade spanning 2000-2009. The data were generated by using the Hamon equation and output from CCCMA (also CGCM3.1), a third generation coupled global climate model created by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis. Data are at 2km x 2km resolution, and all data are stored in geotiffs.

Baseline (1961-1990) average winter temperature in and projected change in temperature for for the northern portion of Alaska. For the purposes of these maps, 'winter' is defined as December - February. The Alaska portion of the Arctic LCC's terrestrial boundary is depicted by the black line. Baseline results for 1961-1990 are derived from Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS3.1 data and downscaled to 2km grids; results for the other time periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) are based on the SNAP 5-GCM composite using the AR5-RCP 8.5, downscaled to 2km grids.

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET): These data represent decadal mean totals of potential evapotranspiration estimates (mm). The file name specifies the decade the raster represents. For example, a file named pet_mean_mm_decadal_CCCMA_CGCM31_A1B_annual_2000-2009.tif represents the decade spanning 2000-2009. The data were generated by using the Hamon equation and output from CCCMA (also CGCM3.1), a third generation coupled global climate model created by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis. Data are at 2km x 2km resolution, and all data are stored in geotiffs.

This dataset includes Snow Up Date(sudy) for northern Alaska in GeoTiff format, covering the years 1980-2012. Snow Up Date is defined as day of the start of the core snow period(day of year). The core snow season is defined to be the longest period of continuous snow cover in each year. The dataset was generated by the Arctic LCC SNOWDATA: Snow Datasets for Arctic Terrestrial Applications project.

The Black-bellied Plover breeds regularly in Arctic Alaska with the highest numbers
concentrated in the central portion of the Arctic Coastal Plain (Johnson et al. 2007). In
general, this species tends to choose dry habitats for nesting such as dry heath tundra, exposed
ridges, and river banks. They will occasionally nest in wetter tundra habitats but tend to select
drier microsites (Paulson 1995). Black-bellied Plovers search for invertebrate prey visually on
open tundra during the breeding season. This species winters along the coastlines of North

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET): These data represent decadal mean totals of potential evapotranspiration estimates (mm). The file name specifies the decade the raster represents. For example, a file named pet_mean_mm_decadal_CRU_Historical_annual_1930-1939.tif represents the decade spanning 1930-1939. The data were generated by using the Hamon equation and output from a statistically downscaled version of the Hadley Centre's CRU TS3.0 observational dataset. Data are at 2km x 2km resolution, and all data are stored in geotiffs.

The Yellow-billed loon, the largest of the world’s five loon species, and also the rarest, has one
of the highest nesting densities in the world on the central Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska (Earnst
et al. 2005). In Alaska, this species typically breeds on the edges of relatively deep (>2 m), large
(usu. >12 ha) fish-bearing lakes (http://alaska.fws.gov/). Little is known about their diet in
Alaska, but they are believed to depend on several fish species, with cisco (Coregonus spp.)

This data set represents an updated Ecological Subsection Map for Northern Alaska. This 2012 revision focused on completing the incompletely mapped portion of the southern NPRA, improving mapping of glacial and outwash deposits within the Brooks Foothills, and improving consistency with existing surficial and bedrock geology maps in northern Alaska. The revisions resulted in 525 ecological subsections, nested within 55 ecosections and 12 ecoregions covering 411,781 km2.