Workshops were held in each of the 3-6 areas to present study results and solicit visits with managers over 2-3 days. In addition, stakeholder involvement was recruited at 1-3 areas to develop a decision-making tool that incorporates climate change projections in management alternatives.
LCCs have produced a wealth of informational documents, reports, fact sheets, webinars and more to help support resource managers in designing and delivering conservation at landscape scales.
Maps of the probability of occurrence of tidal marsh plant species were created using generalized additive models (Hastie and Tibshirani 1990). Species modeled: Saltgrass, alkali-heath, SF Bay gumplant, jaumea, wirerush, pepperweed, giant reed, pickleweed, hard-stem tule, three-square bullrush, smooth cordgrass, California cordgrass, cattail.
WHIPPET is an online tool that helps land managers determine which invasive plant populations are the highest priority for eradication. The tool scores populations based on their impact, spread, and feasibility of control. The user can select their region of concern and the species to consider from among the 210 listed in the California Invasive Plant Council Inventory. Beta version to be released fall 2013.
The goal of the North-central California Coast and Ocean Climate-Smart Adaptation Project is to collaboratively develop and implement adaptation actions in response to, and in preparation for, climate change impacts on habitats, species and ecosystem services (termed focal resources). Vulnerability to climate and non-climate stressors was assessed for select focal resources in the region during Phase 1 of the project through two decision-support workshops.
Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services.
The coastal region of California supports a wealth of ecosystem services including habitat provision for wildlife and fisheries. Tidal marshes, mudflats, and shallow bays within coastal estuaries link marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats, and provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise (SLR) are altering these habitats, but we know little about how these areas will change over the next 50–100 years.
Understanding San Francisco Bay's vulnerabilities to sea level rise is important for both biodiversity conservation and for management of public infrastructure. Coastal marshes provide essential ecosystem services such as water filtration and flood abatement while also providing important habitat for species of conservation concern. Improving our understanding of how tidal marsh habitats will be affected by sea level rise is important so that we maximize ecosystem services that coastal marshes provide and ensure that endemic populations of plants and animals persist into the future.
Previous California Landscape Cooperative (CA LCC) funding for our project titled, “A Broad - Scale, Multi - Species Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends in Response to Future Land Use and Climate Change” resulted in the development and implementation of a CA LCC - wide monitoring program for shorebirds – The Pacific Flyway Shorebird Survey (PFSS; www.prbo.org/pfss ).
This dataset contains monthly average hours of fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) per day for North and Central Coastal California. The set of 42 grids has one for each summer month (June, July, August, and September) for each year (1999 - 2009), except for 2 missing months (June 2001 and August 2006) . Grid cell values were calculated using eleven years of hourly, day and night, cloud maps derived from geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) images collected and processed by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA).
The aim of this USGS program is to provide site specific sea-level rise predictions to land managers through the intensive collection of field data and innovative predictive modeling. In 2009 and 2010, thousands of elevation and vegetation survey points were collected in salt marsh at 12 sites surrounding San Francisco Bay. The elevation data was synthesized into a continuous elevation model for each site, providing land owners valuable baseline data.
Adaptation Planning Workshop findings were used to generate implementation guides that describe where, when, and how to implement actions, as well as emphasizes adaptation across management boundaries. The guides also provide guidance on the application and integration of the vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies in management decision‐making.
Speaker: Dr. Jason Kreitler, USGS
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 -12:00pm to 1:00pm
This project is analyzing downscaled climate model data to assess the geography of climate change at scales relevant to actual conservation actions. This work analyzes the California Essential Habitat Connectivity products to determine which protected lands are most vulnerable and which of the proposed corridors would partially mitigate climate change threats.
Case Study: Integrated Scenarios and Outreach for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands
Website: "Climate Change Refugia" website features a dynamic, interactive refugia map and all deliverables
In 2010 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Coastal and Marine Geology Program completed three cruises to map the bathymetry of the main channel and shallow intertidal mudflats in the southernmost part of south San Francisco Bay.
Coastal ecosystems have been identified by the International Panel on Climate Change (2007) as areas
that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Recent sea-level rise projections range from 0.57
to 1.1 m (Jevrejeva et al. 2012) or 0.75 to 1.9 m by Grinsted et al. (2010) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf
(2009) by 2100, which are contingent upon the ambient temperature conditions and CO2 emissions. Sealevel
rise projections for San Francisco Bay are 1.24 m by 2100 (Cayan et al. 2008). The expected
Meadows delineated in the Sierra Nevada wth refugial status and connectivity rankings--WellConnected (WC), ReallyWellConnected (RC), Stable. Satisfies the delivery of "Sierra Nevada Connectivity Maps" and "Sierra Nevada Meadows Map". Maps of the Sierra Nevada Meadows designated by their connectivity classification and whether they are expected to have a climate different than historic (1910-1939).
Adaptation Planning Workshop #1:
Tidal marsh habitat is at high risk of severe loss and degradation as a result of human uses, sea-level rise, changes in salinity, and more frequent and extreme storms projected by climate models. Availability of habitat is a prerequisite for long-term viability of marsh bird populations and this has been modeled in a companion California Landscape Conservation Cooperative project (Veloz et al. 2011). However, habitat alone will ensure neither resilience nor recovery of depleted and threatened populations.
Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change, resulting in rapid changes in status. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a rapid assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge is needed to assess current status and future vulnerability. In this study, we present a method that allows systematic evaluation of potential climate change effects on freshwater fishes, using California as an example.
Kristin Byrd presented how this project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and will quantify two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration.
This insert into the February 2013 Estuary news offers snapshots of how seven CA LCC projects have been laying the foundations for lasting cooperative conservation partnerships.
Article in Jan 2015 Mother Jones.
Raster datasets developed in the project Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands.
This data collection is the product of the CA LCC-funded project "Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands".
In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA.
These interactive maps display results from a scenario analysis on the integrated effects of future land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services within the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition focus area (the California Central Valley and surrounding foothills). A three-map viewer allows users to view and compare results at the watershed scale across three scenarios simultaneously.
A survey of natural resource specialists and land managers was conducted at the beginning of the Pacific Coastal Fog Project. Survey results showed that the most urgently needed dataset was a fog frequency map to help make better natural resource decisions for ecosystem restoration, conservation, and preparing for future climate conditions. Fog maps like these could show which areas receive more or less (or no) fog. This data would help land managers understand the influence of fog on patterns of vegetation distribution, wildfire severity, and stream temperature.
Data layers of current and projected suitable habitat for five species: big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis), California gnatcatcher, Ceanothus greggii, Ceanothus verrucosus, and Tecate cypress in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 50 year period.
Percent change in grassland soil carbon sequestration potential. These maps display the percent change in the potential for grassland soil carbon sequestration for each watershed under three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). Here soil carbon represents soil organic carbon (up to 20 cm in depth). Future change in soil carbon was modeled by the U.S.
Webinars for regional stakeholders to present findings of the Vulnerability Analysis and Adaptation Planning and encourage participation in subsequent workshops.
Sites were chosen from Yosemite National Park maps. Larger meadows were prioritized and although most the meadows were within a day's hike from a trailhead, several were tens of kilometers from the nearest road. Previous research (Morelli et al 2012 Proceedings of the Royal Society B) showed that detectability was very high (>95% with only one visit) so most sites were visited only one or two times although always with two experienced observers. Sites were surveyed on foot for at least 30 minutes during morning or evening hours.
We utilized recommendations from the Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Update process to identify optimal allocations of limited funds across space and time for conservation in the SF Bay.
Subregional-scale alternative allocations of resources were evaluated for maximizing conservation benefits at a Bay-wide scale. The allocations will address uncertain climate change impacts along with budgetary and regulatory constraints. To identify optimal allocations we conducted an expert-facilitated Structured-Decision-Making (SDM) process consisting of :
These maps display the magnitude of projected future climate change in relation to the interannual variability in late 20th century CA climate. The maps show the standardized Euclidean distance between the late 20th century climate at each pixel and the future climate at each pixel. The standardization puts all of the climate variables included on the same scale and down weights changes in future climate which have had large year to year variation historically. Warmer colors indicate greater climate change and cooler colors indicate less extreme climate change.
The large uncertainty surrounding the future effects of sea-level rise and other aspects of climate change on tidal marsh ecosystems exacerbates the difficulty in planning effective conservation and restoration actions. We addressed these difficulties in the context of large-scale wetland restoration activities underway in the San Francisco Estuary (Suisun, San Pablo and San Francisco Bays).
Bird community turnover for current and future climate (GFDL) based on maxent models for 198 land bird species.
Speaker: Matt Reiter, Avian Wetland Quantitative Ecologist, Point Blue Conservation Science
How do changes in habitat management and climate effect shorebird populations at local, regional and hemispheric scales? The Pacific Flyway Shorebird Survey project, let by Matt Reiter of Point Blue Conservation Science, seeks to answer this question.
Workshop on Climate Smart Land Management (with focus on invasive plants) at Cal-IPC Symposium, October 2013.
Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities.
Maps have been generated to detail the current and historical biodiversity (no. of species per HUC 12) and imperilment (no. of species existing/no. of species historically * 100 per HUC12) for the entire state. Data is being combined with data for invertebrates and a larger set of maps will be published in 2015-16.
Maps showing projected future range of 79 invasive plants, based on current (2010) and future (2050) climate. Models used an ensemble of 17 Global Circulation Models from PRISM and were run using (open source) Maxent software. Maps are posted on CalWeedMapper (https://calweedmapper.cal-ipc.org/maps/).
We propose a statistically robust, logistically feasible, long-term monitoring program for wintering shorebirds in coastal California and northern Baja to track spatial and temporal population trends resulting from changing climate and habitat conditions. Specifically, we recommend a sampling design and survey protocol for wintering shorebirds in coastal wetland habitat and provide the data storage and analytical framework for population and trend estimates to be made annually as new data come in through the online data portal in the California Avian Data Center.
To climate scientists, marine fog’s physical opacity symbolizes how much remains to be discovered about the atmospheric phenomenon. This article outlines what is known and unknown about fog and its relationship with climate change.
Conservation priority maps based on combined bird species current and projected abundance and distribution, updated with new model with improved inputs.
The raster grids in this dataset show the relative amount of summertime fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) over a decade for North and Central Coastal California on either a monthly or annual basis. Summertime FLCC is calculated as the average FLCC hours per day from an archive of hourly, day and night, June, July, August, and September, 1999 - 2009, GOES (geostationary operational environmental satellite) images collected and processed into ~26, 000 cloud maps by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA).
Climate change is raising challenging questions for systematic conservation planning. Are methods of planning based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change trends? In response to this concern, some conservation scientists argue that conservation planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species or community types, which shift in response to climate change.
Based on simulation studies using historic monitoring data from SF Bay, we propose a monitoring plan with a standardized survey protocol that will provide robust estimates of spatial and temporal changes in shorebird populations in SF Bay. We also present an online data entry portal developed for the California Avian Data Center (CADC) to capture data and provide general summaries from annual monitoring data. We recommend an annual survey of a stratified random sample of locations to be conducted during high tide on a single day.
Percent change in climatic water deficit relative to the 1981-2010 climate period These maps display the average percent change in climatic water deficit (CWD) from the 1981-2010 climate period to a future climate period for each watershed. Percent change in CWD is provided for two climate projections for each of the three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Future time periods displayed include 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html).
This data collection is the product of the CA LCC-funded project "Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands".
This update describes the project’s background and summarizes progress and data produced.
Environmental Change Network: Current and Projected Vegetation
The current vegetation layer is derived from the vegetation map developed as part of the California Gap Analysis project. The derivation takes the California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR) habitat classification provided in the California Gap Analysis layer, generalizes the classes to a set of broader habitat types, and rasterizes it at 800 meter resolution.