Resources

Soils with High Risk of Water Erodibility

High Wind Erodibility Groups

Low Available Water Storage Capacity

MC2 projections of historic potential vegetation types (1971-2000)

Drought sensitive soils SRLCC North vulnerability map

High Percent Gypsum Content of Soils - SSURGO SRLCC North - Vulnerability

High Sodium Absorption Ratio - SSURGO SRLCC South

Drought sensitive soils SRLCC South vulnerability map

Data from this research are publicly accessible on databasin.org. The goals of the project included: 

Alkaline Soils

Potential for vegetation change on sensitive soils (CGCM3 scenarios) for 2041 to 2050 in the Southern Rockies LCC, USA.

Acidic Soils

Potential for vegetation change on sensitive soils (consensus of 8 scenarios) for 2041 to 2050 in the Southern Rockies LCC, USA

Within the last quarter Siglo has: Substantially completed model build parametrization, and testing; Further developed the final model and report; and Presented the status of the project to stakeholders in Utah. Please see a copy of draft methods below. In addition, we have attached a copy of the presentation.

Springs—ecosystems where groundwater reaches the Earth's surface—are among the most biologically, socio-culturally, and economically important water resources (Stevens and Meretsky 2008). Many endangered species, and numerous rare or endemic species of plants, invertebrates, amphibians, and fish are found only at springs in the United States. Springs are highly sacred to indigenous cultures that use them for water supplies, medicinal, ceremonial, and other purposes.

Climate change and wildfire are interacting to drive vegetation change and potentially reduce water quantity and quality in the southwestern US. Forest restoration is a management approach that could mitigate some of these negative outcomes. However, little information exists on how fuel treatments combined with climate change might influence hydrology across large forest landscapes that incorporate multiple vegetation types and complex fire regimes.

The restoration of historical fire regimes is often a primary objective in the conservation of fire-adapted forests. However, individual species’ responses to future climate change may uncouple historical vegetation–disturbance relationships, producing potentially negative ecological consequences to fire restoration. We used a landscape simulation model to assess how forest pattern will respond to future climate regimes and whether the restoration of historical fire regimes will benefit forest conservation under future climate regimes.

This document summarizes research conducted to develop and apply climate

analysis tools toward a better understanding of the past and future of climate variability in

the state of Utah. Two pilot studies developed analysis tools through the investigation of

natural variability in precipitation systems in Africa, and research into long-term changes

and trends in spring rainfall over the U.S. Great Plains. Our third study used tree-ring

data to estimate snowpack in the state of Utah to 1850, doubling the length of record and

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between canopy density and optimal

snowpack conditions. In order to perform this investigation, the physically-based snow energy

model, Southwestern Forest Snow Energy Model (SFSEM), was developed. Modeling of

snowpack dynamics was completed with SFSEM for 1070 forest stands in the Valles Caldera

National Preserve (VCNP). The modeling exercise was performed for the December 2015 to

Snowpack observations in the Intermountain West are sparse and short, making them

difficult for use in depicting past variability and extremes. This study presents a reconstruction

of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the period of 1850–1989 using increment cores

collected by the U.S. Forest Service, Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis program (FIA).

In the state of Utah, SWE was reconstructed for 38 snow course locations using a combination of

Since the last reporting period, the project team has been focused on conducting spatial analyses of habitat complexity at tributary junctions and finalizing the decision support model and report on the Colorado River. The decision support model was completed and report finalized and designed to inform restoration opportunities on the Colorado River corridor in Utah. The final draft of the CO report is awaiting final USGS review and layout for publication as an Open File Report. Results of the study were presented at the USGS River Restoration workshop in Flagstaff, AZ, June 23-24.

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonaxtraillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus).

Species habitat suitability data

Final report by Heather Bateman and Matthew Johnson.